Kenya’s commuters have drawn a line in the sand. The Counties Commuters Welfare Association (COCOWA) has issued a 14-day ultimatum to the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) to revoke the latest fuel price increases or face legal action—setting up a high-stakes standoff that could reshape how fuel prices are set in Kenya .
The dispute, which escalated on October 18, 2026, has left millions of commuters caught between a regulator unwilling to reverse course and matatu operators passing on costs that in some cases far exceed official guidance.
What COCOWA Is Demanding from EPRA
COCOWA’s demands are precise. Within 14 days, the association wants EPRA to provide clear communication on the factors driving fuel prices, formally engage with commuter representatives, and propose concrete measures to cushion passengers against escalating transport costs .
The association has also urged the Ministry of Energy to intervene directly to push for lower fuel prices, demanding transparency in pricing decisions and meaningful engagement with representatives of public transport users .
COCOWA Secretary General Bernard Otieno framed the ultimatum as a last resort before legal action. “Within this period, we demand clear communication on the factors driving fuel prices, formal engagement with commuter representatives and concrete proposals to cushion commuters against the escalating cost of transport,” he stated .
The association has been careful to distance itself from the blame game between matatu operators and the government. COCOWA National Chairperson Jerry Kenyansa clarified that the group is not part of that dispute, focusing instead on the direct impact on passengers .
The Numbers Behind the Pain
EPRA’s October 14 review delivered steep increases across all fuel products for the pricing cycle running from October 15 to November 14, 2026:
| Product | Price Increase (per litre) | Nairobi Maximum Price |
|---|---|---|
| Super Petrol | +KSh 12.93 | KSh 226.96 |
| Diesel | +KSh 9.90 | KSh 227.76 |
| Kerosene | +KSh 28.49 | KSh 219.87 |
*Source: EPRA October 2026 review *
The increases were not uniform across the country. Mandera recorded the highest prices, with super petrol at KSh 247.62 per litre, while Kaloleni in Kilifi County had the lowest at KSh 223.72 .
EPRA attributed the hikes to a sharp rise in the landed costs of imported refined petroleum products. The average landed cost of super petrol rose 11.81% from US$874.26 to US$977.55 per cubic metre between August and September 2026, while diesel rose 11.32% to US$1,065.38 .
Why EPRA Removed the Subsidy—and Why That Matters
The critical decision behind the price shock was EPRA’s choice not to deploy the fuel price stabilisation fund during this review cycle.
EPRA Director General Edward Mwirigi Kinyua explained that the government opted to preserve the fund for potential future shocks rather than cushion consumers now. “The decision we have taken today is meant to ensure that we save enough money for the future,” Kinyua said. “Europe is going into winter and this will trigger a surge in demand for diesel and kerosene” .
The Petroleum Development Levy Fund had already been heavily drawn down, with over KSh 24 billion used between April and June 2026—nearly the entire annual collection of approximately KSh 26 billion .
Kinyua also indicated that EPRA would not revise fuel prices again in the immediate future, leaving motorists and public transport users to absorb the current rates for at least the next month .
Matatu Fares: The 10% Directive vs. Reality
The Matatu Owners Association (MOA), led by President Albert Karakacha, directed members to increase passenger fares by 10% following the fuel review . For a route that normally costs KSh 100, that would mean KSh 110.
Reality has been far harsher.
Independent operators and Saccos have raised fares by as much as 40 to 50% on certain routes. The Star reported passengers paying KSh 150 for routes that normally cost KSh 100—a 50% increase—and KSh 70 for trips that previously cost KSh 50, a 40% jump .
For a commuter making two trips daily, a fare increase from KSh 100 to KSh 150 translates to an additional KSh 100 per day. Over 22 working days, that amounts to KSh 2,200 per month drained from household budgets already stretched by food and rent .
Karakacha defended the MOA’s 10% guidance, saying operators “are businessmen and we need to make a profit,” but the gap between the directive and actual fares charged at stages suggests limited compliance enforcement .
The Political Dimension: A Broken Promise?
The fare crisis has revived tensions between transport operators and the Ruto administration over a commitment allegedly made in May 2026.
Karakacha accused the government of reneging on assurances given during a meeting with transport stakeholders at State House, Mombasa. “He assured us that diesel, which is the backbone of public transport, would be protected from arbitrary increases,” Karakacha said. “Today, diesel is up by KSh 9.90 per litre. That promise has been broken” .
Diesel powers more than 90% of matatus, buses and long-distance vehicles in Kenya, making its price the single most important fuel cost for public transport operators .
The MOA has called for either the reintroduction of a fuel subsidy or the establishment of a stabilisation fund to protect operators and commuters from volatility .
What Happens Next
If EPRA responds within 14 days: COCOWA has indicated it would engage, though the association has not specified what constitutes an acceptable response beyond “concrete proposals” to cushion commuters.
If EPRA does not respond: COCOWA has committed to seeking legal redress. The association’s argument—that the October review lacked public participation and consultation with transport stakeholders—would form the basis of any court challenge .
For commuters in the meantime: The current fuel prices remain in force until at least mid-November 2026. Matatu fares, once raised, have historically proven slow to come down even when fuel prices stabilise, meaning the October increases may outlast the pricing cycle that triggered them.
The Motorists Association of Kenya has separately condemned the increases, questioning whether the pump price changes are proportionate to the reported rise in imported petroleum costs . Whether that criticism translates into broader pressure on EPRA remains to be seen.
For now, Kenya’s commuting public faces a familiar reality: higher fares, stretched budgets, and a 14-day countdown that will determine whether the dispute escalates from press statements to court filings.